Starting a new business is a little like playing poker. In both cases there is risk, high stakes, and a need for certainty.  

Most poker players, according to Charles Duhigg, author of the book, Smarter, Faster, Better, are obsessed with finding certainty. This obsession colours their decisions, leading them to make safer choices, which often prevents them from being great. 

Entrepreneurs are no different. No one likes uncertainty. People find comfort knowing where life is going. It curbs anxiety and stress.  

However, in poker and in business, there is going to be uncertainty. And to successfully cope in these situations, people need to be comfortable embracing the unknown.  

As an entrepreneur myself, I find this challenging. I like to be certain about my choices before leaping, especially when I’m making financial decisions. At the same time, I know my uncertainty colours my choices, which is unhelpful. 

The good news for people like me is that if you’re willing to lean into uncertainty, the odds can work for you. All you need to do, according to Duhigg, is to think realistically and probabilistically.  

To think realistically, we need to spend time analyzing our own and others’ failures. Scrutinizing these behaviours helps acknowledge and recognize what went wrong and how to fix it. Focusing only on the positive or overlooking missteps will never increase our odds. Complete honesty and a focus on realism will. 

Thinking probabilistically, the second requirement to making good decisions, means we train ourselves to envision various futures. This helps us forecast successes and failures. 

Luckily, we often do this naturally.    

When we try to decide what house to buy or which job to take, we often ask ourselves questions like “What is the worst that could happen?” or “Do I think a better option will come along?” From there we make predictions.  

The people who make the best predictions are the ones who look at the full range of possibilities that could occur rather than assume that things will go as planned. Then, they determine an outcome from this analysis.  

We can all train ourselves to make solid predictions. Of course, no one is right every time, but with practice, we can learn how to make good choices.  

As a challenge this week, I invite you to consider a big decision you need to make in your life. Think about it realistically by scrutinizing the research and your own past habits and decisions. Then, think about it probabilistically, envisioning every possible outcome. From there, let the odds work for you.  

While it might not bring success 100% of the time, it is likely going to help you make thoughtful decisions as you move forward.  

Best of luck!